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Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.7%0-25.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 47.2% 2.12 -12.7%

Draw 31.0% 33.6% 2.98 -7.6%

Away win 27.8% 26.3% 3.80 +3.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 16.2% 27.0% 3.70 -24.0%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.1

Korona Kielce1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.44

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -12.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -7.6%

Korona Kielce (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Korona Kielce in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Korona Kielce 28%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.0 for Korona Kielce (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Korona Kielce. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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