Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock

Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 79.4% 1.26 -35.9%

Draw 25.1% 18.2% 5.50 +22.8%

Away win 24.0% 9.5% 10.50 +91.2%

Over 2.5 50.7% 69.0% 1.45 -26.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% 47.6% 2.10 -27.4%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan1.6

Wisla Plock1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.69

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -35.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +22.8%

Wisla Plock (A) 24.0%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +91.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Wisla Plock 24%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lech Poznan and 1.0 for Wisla Plock (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.13 for Wisla Plock. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +91.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions