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Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Katowice

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.8%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.8%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 37.3% 2.68 +19.8%

Draw 25.9% 25.6% 3.90 +0.6%

Away win 29.4% 44.2% 2.26 -20.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 69.4% 1.44 -24.3%

Over 3.5 31.1% 47.6% 2.10 -34.7%

BTTS 57.3% 71.4% 1.40 -19.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.3%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.5

Katowice1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.81

KATOWICE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=44.7%

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +19.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.6%

Katowice (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Katowice 29%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.3 for Katowice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.00 for Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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