Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice Prediction & Tips

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Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 34 Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera· Szczecin Saturday, May 23, 2026 15:30

Pogon Szczecin PPG 1.81

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Katowice PPG 1.00

Home· +19.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.7%

Odds: 2.68 EV: +19.8%

Draw 25.9%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +0.6%

Away 29.4%

Odds: 2.26 EV: -20.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.44 -24.3%

Over 3.5 31.1% Odds: 2.10 -34.7%

BTTS 57.3% Odds: 1.40 -19.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pogon Szczecin

1.51

Katowice

1.30

Model SuggestionBTTS -19.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -19.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+19.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=44.7%