Katowice vs Jagiellonia Prediction & Tips

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Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 33 Stadion miejski w Katowicach· Katowice Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:45

Katowice PPG 2.00

2-2 MISS

Jagiellonia PPG 1.56

Draw· +1.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.2%

Odds: 2.48 EV: -5.3%

Draw 26.8%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +1.1%

Away 35.0%

Odds: 2.48 EV: -13.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% Odds: 2.40 -18.8%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.50 -18.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Katowice

1.40

Jagiellonia

1.30

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.8%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.56)