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Katowice vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:45

Katowice

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.8%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 40.3% 2.48 -5.3%

Draw 26.8% 26.3% 3.80 +1.1%

Away win 35.0% 40.3% 2.48 -13.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 41.7% 2.40 -18.8%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katowice1.4

Jagiellonia1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KATOWICE · PPG 2.00

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Katowice (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -5.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.1%

Jagiellonia (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katowice face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katowice a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Jagiellonia 35%, so Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Katowice and 1.3 for Jagiellonia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katowice are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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