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Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Widzew Lodz

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.1%0-25.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.9%1-113.1%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.4%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 50.0% 2.00 -8.8%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Away win 26.2% 27.4% 3.65 -2.6%

Over 2.5 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Over 3.5 20.0% 28.6% 3.50 -18.0%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1✓ 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Lodz1.3

Piast Gliwice1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 1.75

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Lodz (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -8.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

Piast Gliwice (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Lodz face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Lodz a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Piast Gliwice 26%, so Widzew Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Widzew Lodz and 1.0 for Piast Gliwice (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Lodz are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.19 for Piast Gliwice. This match finished 2-1.

Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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