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Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warsaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:30

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Legia Warsaw

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.2%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.8%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 37.3% 2.68 +30.5%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 25.8% 41.7% 2.40 -22.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 58.8% 1.70 +0.5%

Over 3.5 36.3% 35.7% 2.80 +1.6%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2✓ 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia Gdansk1.7

Legia Warsaw1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.75

LEGIA WARSAW · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lechia Gdansk (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +30.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

Legia Warsaw (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia Gdansk face Legia Warsaw in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia Gdansk a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Legia Warsaw 26%, so Lechia Gdansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.3 for Legia Warsaw (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Legia Warsaw. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warsaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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