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Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura · Matchday 22 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

Guastatoya

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Marquense

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-12.5%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.3%1-16.6%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-18.7%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.6%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-19.5%4+-23.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 69.4% 1.44 -6.1%

Draw 22.2% 25.3% 3.95 -12.3%

Away win 12.5% 15.4% 6.50 -18.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 48.8% 2.05 +20.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% 26.7% 3.75 +60.5%

BTTS 52.6% 45.5% 2.20 +15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 34.7%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 65% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guastatoya2.6

Marquense0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUASTATOYA · PPG 2.10

MARQUENSE · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guastatoya (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -6.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -12.3%

Marquense (A) 12.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guastatoya face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guastatoya a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Marquense 13%, so Guastatoya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Guastatoya and 0.7 for Marquense (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guastatoya are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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