Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 22 Sunday, April 26, 2026 21:00

Guastatoya PPG 2.10

4-0 MISS

Marquense PPG 0.60

Over3.5· +60.5% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Guastatoya face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guastatoya a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Marquense 13%, so Guastatoya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Guastatoya and 0.7 for Marquense (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guastatoya are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.2%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -6.1%

Draw 22.2%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -12.3%

Away 12.5%

Odds: 6.50 EV: -18.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 2.05 +20.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% Odds: 3.75 +60.5%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.20 +15.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Guastatoya

2.64

Marquense

0.70

Model SuggestionHome -6.1% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-6.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus