Aurora vs Mictlan Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 22 Estadio Guillermo Slowing· Amatitlan Sunday, April 26, 2026 21:00

Aurora PPG 1.50

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Mictlan PPG 0.70

Home· +13.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Mictlan in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Mictlan 23%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aurora and 0.9 for Mictlan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.70 for Mictlan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.6%

Odds: 2.33 EV: +13.2%

Draw 28.1%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -10.1%

Away 23.3%

Odds: 2.85 EV: -33.6%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 2.05 +5.8%

Over 3.5 30.0% Odds: 3.70 +11.0%

BTTS 52.9% Odds: 1.80 -4.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aurora

1.85

Mictlan

0.91

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.70)