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Aurora vs Mictlan Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 22 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

Aurora

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mictlan

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.6%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 42.9% 2.33 +13.2%

Draw 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 23.3% 35.1% 2.85 -33.6%

Over 2.5 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Over 3.5 30.0% 27.0% 3.70 +11.0%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 49% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.9

Mictlan0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.50

MICTLAN · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +13.2%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Mictlan (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Mictlan in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Mictlan 23%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aurora and 0.9 for Mictlan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.70 for Mictlan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Aurora vs Mictlan Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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