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Mixco vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 21 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Mixco

PPG 2.40 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Aurora

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-11.4%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.0%1-14.3%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.3%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.6%3-16.3%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.4%4+-19.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.7% 66.7% 1.50 +31.6%

Draw 9.2% 27.0% 3.70 -66.0%

Away win 3.1% 16.7% 6.00 -81.4%

Over 2.5 65.9% 46.5% 2.15 +41.7%

Over 3.5 44.0% 25.0% 4.00 +76.0%

BTTS 33.2% 46.5% 2.15 -28.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 79%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob33.2%

H 88% / xG 3.0-0.4 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 3–0 14.6%

#3 4–0✓ 10.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 5–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mixco3.0

Aurora0.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIXCO · PPG 2.40

AURORA · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mixco (H) 87.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +31.6%

Draw 9.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -66.0%

Aurora (A) 3.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -81.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mixco face Aurora in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mixco a 88% chance, the draw 9% and Aurora 3%, so Mixco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Mixco and 0.4 for Aurora (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mixco are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Aurora. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +76.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Mixco vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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