Mixco vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 21 Sunday, April 19, 2026 19:00

Mixco PPG 2.40

4-0 HIT CS3

Aurora PPG 0.40

Over3.5· +76.0% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Mixco face Aurora in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mixco a 88% chance, the draw 9% and Aurora 3%, so Mixco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Mixco and 0.4 for Aurora (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mixco are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Aurora. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +76.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 87.7%

Odds: 1.50 EV: +31.6%

Draw 9.2%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -66.0%

Away 3.1%

Odds: 6.00 EV: -81.4%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.9% Odds: 2.15 +41.7%

Over 3.5 44.0% Odds: 4.00 +76.0%

BTTS 33.2% Odds: 2.15 -28.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 5-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Mixco

2.96

Aurora

0.43

Model SuggestionHome +31.6% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+76.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus