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Coban Imperial vs Achuapa Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 21 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 21:00

Coban Imperial

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Achuapa

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 89.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+25.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-11.2%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-13.7%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.6%2-15.6%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.6%3-15.6%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-024.8%4+-18.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.3% 71.4% 1.40 +25.0%

Draw 8.3% 25.0% 4.00 -66.8%

Away win 2.4% 12.9% 7.75 -81.4%

Over 2.5 65.4% 51.3% 1.95 +27.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 29.0% 3.45 +50.1%

BTTS 28.7% 46.5% 2.15 -38.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob28.7%

H 89% / xG 3.0-0.4 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 4–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 5–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coban Imperial3.0

Achuapa0.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COBAN IMPERIAL · PPG 2.00

ACHUAPA · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Coban Imperial (H) 89.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +25.0%

Draw 8.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -66.8%

Achuapa (A) 2.4%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV -81.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coban Imperial face Achuapa in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coban Imperial a 89% chance, the draw 8% and Achuapa 2%, so Coban Imperial are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Coban Imperial and 0.4 for Achuapa (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coban Imperial are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Achuapa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Coban Imperial vs Achuapa Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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