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Malacateco vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 22 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

Malacateco

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.9%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-111.2%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malacateco1.6

Comunicaciones0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MALACATECO · PPG 1.80

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Malacateco (H) 48.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Comunicaciones (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Malacateco face Comunicaciones in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malacateco a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Comunicaciones 22%, so Malacateco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Malacateco and 0.7 for Comunicaciones (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malacateco are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Comunicaciones. This match finished 1-0.

Malacateco vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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