Mictlan vs Xelaju Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 21 Estadio La Asuncion· Asuncion Mita Sunday, April 19, 2026 23:00

Mictlan PPG 1.90

2-3 MISS

Xelaju PPG 0.70

Over3.5· +18.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Mictlan face Xelaju in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mictlan a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Xelaju 30%, so Mictlan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mictlan and 1.2 for Xelaju (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mictlan are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.70 for Xelaju. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.0%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -14.2%

Draw 25.6%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -18.1%

Away 30.4%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +11.0%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.2% Odds: 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.2% Odds: 4.20 +18.4%

BTTS 54.0% Odds: 1.93 +4.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Mictlan

1.49

Xelaju

1.20

Model SuggestionBTTS +4.2% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+18.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=44.0%