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Mictlan vs Xelaju Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 21 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

Mictlan

PPG 1.90 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Xelaju

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.2%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.2%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -18.1%

Away win 30.4% 27.4% 3.65 +11.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +18.4%

BTTS 54.0% 51.8% 1.93 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.0%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mictlan1.5

Xelaju1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MICTLAN · PPG 1.90

XELAJU · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=44.0%

Win probability 1X2

Mictlan (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.1%

Xelaju (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mictlan face Xelaju in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mictlan a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Xelaju 30%, so Mictlan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mictlan and 1.2 for Xelaju (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mictlan are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.70 for Xelaju. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Mictlan vs Xelaju Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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