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Municipal vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 22 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

Municipal

PPG 2.30 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mixco

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.30) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-16.9%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-19.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 16.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 44.6% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 61% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0✓ 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal2.6

Mixco0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL · PPG 2.30

MIXCO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.30) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Municipal (H) 60.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mixco (A) 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal face Mixco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Mixco 17%, so Municipal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Municipal and 0.8 for Mixco (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.90 for Mixco. This match finished 3-0.

Municipal vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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