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Marquense vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 21 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 02:00

Marquense

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Municipal

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 31.3% — a clear edge.

+119.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.2%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.0%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.9%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% 31.3% 3.20 +119.2%

Draw 19.0% 32.3% 3.10 -41.1%

Away win 12.6% 46.5% 2.15 -72.9%

Over 2.5 56.2% 42.6% 2.35 +32.1%

Over 3.5 33.8% 23.1% 4.33 +46.4%

BTTS 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 68% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marquense2.1

Municipal0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARQUENSE · PPG 2.40

MUNICIPAL · PPG 0.90

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.90) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marquense (H) 68.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +119.2%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -41.1%

Municipal (A) 12.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -72.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marquense face Municipal in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marquense a 69% chance, the draw 19% and Municipal 13%, so Marquense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Marquense and 0.8 for Municipal (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marquense are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.90 for Municipal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +119.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Marquense vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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