Achuapa vs Antigua GFC Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 22 Estadio Winston Pineda· Jutiapa Sunday, April 26, 2026 21:00

Achuapa PPG 1.30

2-2 MISS

Antigua GFC PPG 1.00

Home· +102.6% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Achuapa face Antigua GFC in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Achuapa a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Antigua GFC 29%, so Achuapa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Achuapa and 1.3 for Antigua GFC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Achuapa are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Antigua GFC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +102.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.2%

Odds: 4.80 EV: +102.6%

Draw 29.1%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +0.4%

Away 28.8%

Odds: 1.67 EV: -51.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.95 +15.0%

Over 3.5 32.9% Odds: 3.40 +11.9%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.85 +8.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Achuapa

1.61

Antigua GFC

1.28

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +15.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+102.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)