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Achuapa vs Antigua GFC Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 22 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

Achuapa

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Antigua GFC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.1%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 20.8% 4.80 +102.6%

Draw 29.1% 29.0% 3.45 +0.4%

Away win 28.8% 59.9% 1.67 -51.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 51.3% 1.95 +15.0%

Over 3.5 32.9% 29.4% 3.40 +11.9%

BTTS 58.5% 54.1% 1.85 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Achuapa1.6

Antigua GFC1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ACHUAPA · PPG 1.30

ANTIGUA GFC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Achuapa (H) 42.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +102.6%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.4%

Antigua GFC (A) 28.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -51.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Achuapa face Antigua GFC in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Achuapa a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Antigua GFC 29%, so Achuapa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Achuapa and 1.3 for Antigua GFC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Achuapa are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Antigua GFC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +102.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Achuapa vs Antigua GFC Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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