Today / Bahrain - Premier League / AAli FC vs Budaiya

AAli FC vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

AAli FC

PPG 1.10 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Budaiya

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.2%0-26.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 42.9% 2.33 -10.1%

Draw 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Away win 31.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 16.1% 27.8% 3.60 -25.2%

BTTS 50.8% 57.1% 1.75 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AAli FC1.1

Budaiya1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AALI FC · PPG 1.10

BUDAIYA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.10) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

AAli FC (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -10.1%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Budaiya (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AAli FC face Budaiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AAli FC a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Budaiya 31%, so AAli FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AAli FC and 1.0 for Budaiya (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AAli FC are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.50 for Budaiya. This match finished 2-0.

AAli FC vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bahrain - Premier League Predictions