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Al Jabalain vs Al Jubail Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.93 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Jubail

PPG 0.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-11.4%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.4%1-14.5%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.6%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.8%4+-112.7%4+-23.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.2% 69.4% 1.44 +24.1%

Draw 9.6% 24.4% 4.10 -60.6%

Away win 4.3% 16.0% 6.25 -73.1%

Over 2.5 72.2% 61.7% 1.62 +17.0%

Over 3.5 51.5% 39.2% 2.55 +31.3%

BTTS 43.7% 57.8% 1.73 -24.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 86% / xG 3.1-0.6 / O2.5 72% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.1%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 4–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jabalain3.1

Al Jubail0.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.2% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.93

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.07

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Jabalain (H) 86.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +24.1%

Draw 9.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -60.6%

Al Jubail (A) 4.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -73.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jabalain face Al Jubail in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jabalain a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Al Jubail 4%, so Al Jabalain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Al Jabalain and 0.6 for Al Jubail (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jabalain are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.07 for Al Jubail. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.3%.

Al Jabalain vs Al Jubail Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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