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LKS Lodz vs Pogon Grodzisk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Monday, April 13, 2026

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pogon Grodzisk

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.0%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.8%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Draw 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -12.2%

Away win 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -3.2%

Over 2.5 56.9% 61.7% 1.62 -7.8%

Over 3.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

BTTS 57.3% 63.7% 1.57 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LKS Lodz1.8

Pogon Grodzisk1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.62

POGON GRODZISK · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.62) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

LKS Lodz (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.2%

Pogon Grodzisk (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

LKS Lodz face Pogon Grodzisk in Poland - I Liga on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LKS Lodz a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Pogon Grodzisk 24%, so LKS Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for LKS Lodz and 1.2 for Pogon Grodzisk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LKS Lodz are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.15 for Pogon Grodzisk.

LKS Lodz vs Pogon Grodzisk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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