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Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.1%0-25.6%0-33.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.1%1-19.5%1-28.8%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 42.6% 2.35 -17.5%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 44.7% 42.6% 2.35 +5.1%

BTTS 60.3% 69.4% 1.44 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.3%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec1.6

Polonia Bytom1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.00

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -17.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Polonia Bytom (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Polonia Bytom 41%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stal Mielec and 1.9 for Polonia Bytom (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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