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Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

Miedz Legnica

PPG 2.07 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.0%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.2%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.5%3-14.8%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 50.0% 2.00 -12.4%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 57.1% 1.75 +3.4%

Over 3.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2✓ 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica1.6

Ruch Chorzow1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 2.07

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Ruch Chorzow (A) 30.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Ruch Chorzow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Ruch Chorzow 31%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Miedz Legnica and 1.4 for Ruch Chorzow (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.27 for Ruch Chorzow. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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