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Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:15

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Slask Wroclaw

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.7%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.6%1-19.0%1-27.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.4%3-15.6%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 40.0% 2.50 +15.0%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 30.5% 41.7% 2.40 -26.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 60.6% 1.65 +5.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 40.0% 2.50 +18.0%

BTTS 62.5% 64.5% 1.55 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Bytom1.9

Slask Wroclaw1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.69

SLASK WROCLAW · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Bytom (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +15.0%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Slask Wroclaw (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Slask Wroclaw in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Slask Wroclaw 31%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Polonia Bytom and 1.6 for Slask Wroclaw (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.44 for Slask Wroclaw. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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