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Tychy vs Stal Rzeszow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Tychy

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stal Rzeszow

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.8%0-25.7%0-33.7%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.6%1-19.0%1-28.9%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.9%3-13.7%3-23.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 55.6% 1.80 -38.8%

Draw 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

Away win 41.9% 28.6% 3.50 +46.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.5%

A 42% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tychy1.6

Stal Rzeszow2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TYCHY · PPG 0.63

STAL RZESZOW · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

68%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Tychy (H) 34.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -38.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Stal Rzeszow (A) 41.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tychy face Stal Rzeszow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tychy a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Stal Rzeszow 42%, so Stal Rzeszow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tychy and 2.0 for Stal Rzeszow (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tychy are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Stal Rzeszow. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Tychy vs Stal Rzeszow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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