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Puszcza Niepolo vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 16:00

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.5%0-25.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.1%1-111.4%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.7%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.2%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 29.4% 3.40 +38.0%

Draw 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

Away win 34.2% 50.0% 2.00 -31.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 51.3% 1.95 +15.2%

Over 3.5 33.8% 29.4% 3.40 +14.9%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puszcza Niepolo1.5

LKS Lodz1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.50

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Puszcza Niepolo (H) 40.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +38.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.1%

LKS Lodz (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puszcza Niepolo face LKS Lodz in Poland - I Liga on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puszcza Niepolo a 41% chance, the draw 25% and LKS Lodz 34%, so Puszcza Niepolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Puszcza Niepolo and 1.4 for LKS Lodz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puszcza Niepolo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for LKS Lodz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Puszcza Niepolo vs LKS Lodz Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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