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Znicz Pruszkow vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Znicz Pruszkow

PPG 0.56 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.6%0-27.9%0-35.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.7%1-36.7%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.8%2-15.8%2-26.0%2-34.1%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.4%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 41.9% 37.0% 2.70 +13.1%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 53% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Znicz Pruszkow1.2

Ruch Chorzow2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZNICZ PRUSZKOW · PPG 0.56

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Znicz Pruszkow (H) 23.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Ruch Chorzow (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Znicz Pruszkow face Ruch Chorzow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Znicz Pruszkow a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Ruch Chorzow 53%, so Ruch Chorzow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Znicz Pruszkow and 2.1 for Ruch Chorzow (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Znicz Pruszkow are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.38 for Ruch Chorzow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Znicz Pruszkow vs Ruch Chorzow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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