Today / Poland - I Liga / Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce

Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Wisla Krakow

PPG 2.31 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pogon Siedlce

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.5%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.3%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 75.2% 1.33 -20.1%

Draw 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Away win 17.7% 13.2% 7.60 +20.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 31.2% 42.0% 2.38 -25.7%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 60% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Krakow2.1

Pogon Siedlce0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA KRAKOW · PPG 2.31

POGON SIEDLCE · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=60.1%

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Krakow (H) 60.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -20.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Pogon Siedlce (A) 17.7%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Krakow face Pogon Siedlce in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Krakow a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Pogon Siedlce 18%, so Wisla Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Wisla Krakow and 0.8 for Pogon Siedlce (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Pogon Siedlce. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions