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Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Miedz Legnica

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-111.9%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 56.5% 1.77 -29.7%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 34.4% 26.0% 3.85 +32.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 30.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

BTTS 55.7% 61.7% 1.62 -9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica1.5

Puszcza Niepolo1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 1.94

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -29.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Puszcza Niepolo (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Puszcza Niepolo in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Puszcza Niepolo 34%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Miedz Legnica and 1.3 for Puszcza Niepolo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.38 for Puszcza Niepolo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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