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Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 18 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:10

Deportivo Cali

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

America de Cali

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-110.7%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 40.3% 2.48 +18.1%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 21.5% 34.2% 2.92 -37.2%

Over 2.5 28.4% 42.0% 2.38 -32.4%

Over 3.5 11.8% 22.2% 4.50 -46.9%

BTTS 34.2% 50.0% 2.00 -31.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob34.2%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.3%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cali1.2

America de Cali0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.4% · O3.5 PROB 11.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 1.78

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cali (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +18.1%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

America de Cali (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cali face America de Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cali a 48% chance, the draw 31% and America de Cali 22%, so Deportivo Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Cali and 0.7 for America de Cali (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cali are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.33 for America de Cali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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