Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 19 Estadio Municipal de Cota· Cota Sunday, May 3, 2026 20:30

Fortaleza CEIF PPG 1.67

2-1 HIT CS5

A. Bucaramanga PPG 0.78

Home· +3.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza CEIF face A. Bucaramanga in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza CEIF a 35% chance, the draw 32% and A. Bucaramanga 34%, so Fortaleza CEIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fortaleza CEIF and 1.2 for A. Bucaramanga (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza CEIF are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.78 for A. Bucaramanga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.5%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +3.5%

Draw 31.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -1.1%

Away 33.6%

Odds: 2.42 EV: -18.7%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.9% Odds: 2.38 -0.3%

Over 3.5 21.3% Odds: 4.50 -4.2%

BTTS 49.9% Odds: 2.00 -0.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Fortaleza CEIF

1.19

A. Bucaramanga

1.17

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.5%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=34.5%