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Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Fortaleza CEIF

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

A. Bucaramanga

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.1%0-26.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.2%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.8%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 33.3% 3.00 +3.5%

Draw 31.9% 32.3% 3.10 -1.1%

Away win 33.6% 41.3% 2.42 -18.7%

Over 2.5 41.9% 42.0% 2.38 -0.3%

Over 3.5 21.3% 22.2% 4.50 -4.2%

BTTS 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza CEIF1.2

A. Bucaramanga1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA CEIF · PPG 1.67

A. BUCARAMANGA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=34.5%

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza CEIF (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.1%

A. Bucaramanga (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza CEIF face A. Bucaramanga in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza CEIF a 35% chance, the draw 32% and A. Bucaramanga 34%, so Fortaleza CEIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fortaleza CEIF and 1.2 for A. Bucaramanga (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza CEIF are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.78 for A. Bucaramanga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Fortaleza CEIF vs A. Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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