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Jaguares de C. vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 19 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:00

Jaguares de C.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cucuta

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 41.7% 2.40 -0.4%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

Away win 30.6% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Over 2.5 55.8% 50.0% 2.00 +11.6%

Over 3.5 33.5% 27.8% 3.60 +20.6%

BTTS 60.3% 56.5% 1.77 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares de C.1.6

Cucuta1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES DE C. · PPG 1.44

CUCUTA · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=41.5%

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares de C. (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -0.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.3%

Cucuta (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares de C. face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares de C. a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Cucuta 31%, so Jaguares de C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jaguares de C. and 1.3 for Cucuta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares de C. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Jaguares de C. vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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