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Junior vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 22:45

Junior

PPG 1.78 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.2%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 54.3% 1.84 -25.9%

Draw 29.3% 29.0% 3.45 +1.1%

Away win 30.4% 23.8% 4.20 +27.7%

Over 2.5 50.8% 47.6% 2.10 +6.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +9.1%

BTTS 56.5% 51.8% 1.93 +9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.5%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior1.5

Deportivo Pasto1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.78

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 40.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -25.9%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.1%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 30.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Pasto 30%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Junior and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.75 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 4-3.

Junior vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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