Junior vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 19 Estadio Romelio Martinez· Barranquilla Sunday, May 3, 2026 22:45

Junior PPG 1.78

4-3 MISS

Deportivo Pasto PPG 1.75

Away· +27.7% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Pasto 30%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Junior and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.75 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 4-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.3%

Odds: 1.84 EV: -25.9%

Draw 29.3%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +1.1%

Away 30.4%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +27.7%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.8% Odds: 2.10 +6.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% Odds: 3.80 +9.1%

BTTS 56.5% Odds: 1.93 +9.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Junior

1.46

Deportivo Pasto

1.25

Model SuggestionBTTS +9.0% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+27.7%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.5%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.78), Away GOOD (1.75)