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Boyaca Chico vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Boyaca Chico

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Llaneros

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-114.5%0-27.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.7%2-16.2%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 34.2% 2.92 -17.1%

Draw 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

Away win 37.0% 40.3% 2.48 -8.2%

Over 2.5 32.9% 40.8% 2.45 -19.4%

Over 3.5 14.6% 21.1% 4.75 -30.6%

BTTS 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob42.2%

D 35% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 0–1 14.5%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boyaca Chico0.9

Llaneros1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOYACA CHICO · PPG 1.63

LLANEROS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Boyaca Chico (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -17.1%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.3%

Llaneros (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boyaca Chico face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boyaca Chico a 28% chance, the draw 35% and Llaneros 37%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Boyaca Chico and 1.1 for Llaneros (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boyaca Chico are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.33 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Boyaca Chico vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions