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A. Bucaramanga vs Jaguares de C. Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

A. Bucaramanga

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Jaguares de C.

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 91.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a clear edge.

+27.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-12.9%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.8%2-15.2%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.9%3-16.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.2%4+-113.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.8% 71.9% 1.39 +27.6%

Draw 6.2% 22.5% 4.45 -72.4%

Away win 2.0% 12.3% 8.10 -83.8%

Over 2.5 75.6% 57.8% 1.73 +30.8%

Over 3.5 55.8% 35.7% 2.80 +56.2%

BTTS 34.4% 51.3% 1.95 -32.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 89%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob34.4%

H 92% / xG 3.5-0.4 / O2.5 76% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.9%

#2 4–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 5–0 8.6%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Bucaramanga3.5

Jaguares de C.0.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.8%

Form & verdict PPG

A. BUCARAMANGA · PPG 1.88

JAGUARES DE C. · PPG 0.13

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

A. Bucaramanga (H) 91.8%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV +27.6%

Draw 6.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -72.4%

Jaguares de C. (A) 2.0%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV -83.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Bucaramanga face Jaguares de C. in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Bucaramanga a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Jaguares de C. 2%, so A. Bucaramanga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for A. Bucaramanga and 0.4 for Jaguares de C. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Bucaramanga are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.13 for Jaguares de C.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +56.2%. This match finished 2-2.

A. Bucaramanga vs Jaguares de C. Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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