← Back to picks

R. Aguilas vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A logo Colombia flag Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 18 Estadio Alberto Grisales· Rionegro Sunday, April 26, 2026 21:00
R. Aguilas logo R. Aguilas PPG 1.44
2-2 MISS
Once Caldas logo Once Caldas PPG 1.38
Over2.5· +6.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Aguilas face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Aguilas a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Once Caldas 32%, so R. Aguilas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for R. Aguilas and 1.3 for Once Caldas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Aguilas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%
Odds: 2.52 EV: -8.0%
Draw 31.3%
Odds: 3.15 EV: -1.4%
Away 32.2%
Odds: 2.84 EV: -8.6%
Model lean: BTTS
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.9% Odds: 2.10 +6.9%
Over 3.5 27.5% Odds: 3.75 +3.1%
BTTS 58.3% Odds: 1.80 +4.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-2
4th 2-1
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

R. Aguilas
1.30
Once Caldas
1.35

Model Suggestion

BTTS +4.9% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS.
Raw EV leader: Over2.5(+6.9%)

League Track Record

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%
O2.5/Under 63%
BTTS/No 56%
Score Hit 44%
ROI 7.5%
Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org