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R. Aguilas vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:00

R. Aguilas

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Once Caldas

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.5%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.2%1-112.4%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 39.7% 2.52 -8.0%

Draw 31.3% 31.7% 3.15 -1.4%

Away win 32.2% 35.2% 2.84 -8.6%

Over 2.5 50.9% 47.6% 2.10 +6.9%

Over 3.5 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +3.1%

BTTS 58.3% 55.6% 1.80 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.3%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Aguilas1.3

Once Caldas1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

R. AGUILAS · PPG 1.44

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

R. Aguilas (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -8.0%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -1.4%

Once Caldas (A) 32.2%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Aguilas face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Aguilas a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Once Caldas 32%, so R. Aguilas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for R. Aguilas and 1.3 for Once Caldas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Aguilas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 2-2.

R. Aguilas vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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