Once Caldas vs A. Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 19 Estadio Palogrande· Manizales Friday, May 1, 2026 23:00

Once Caldas PPG 2.00

1-0 MISS

A. Nacional PPG 1.67

Over3.5· +5.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Once Caldas face A. Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Once Caldas a 34% chance, the draw 29% and A. Nacional 38%, so A. Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Once Caldas and 1.5 for A. Nacional (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Once Caldas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for A. Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.6%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -2.6%

Draw 28.6%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -7.0%

Away 37.7%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -9.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.8% Odds: 1.93 +3.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% Odds: 3.35 +5.5%

BTTS 59.1% Odds: 1.73 +2.2%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Once Caldas

1.37

A. Nacional

1.46

Model SuggestionBTTS +2.2% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+5.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.5%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)