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Once Caldas vs A. Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 19 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 23:00

Once Caldas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

A. Nacional

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.6%0-26.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.1%1-111.8%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.1%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.5%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 34.5% 2.90 -2.6%

Draw 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 37.7% 41.7% 2.40 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.8% 1.93 +3.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.9% 3.35 +5.5%

BTTS 59.1% 57.8% 1.73 +2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.1%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Once Caldas1.4

A. Nacional1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 2.00

A. NACIONAL · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Once Caldas (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.6%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

A. Nacional (A) 37.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Once Caldas face A. Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Once Caldas a 34% chance, the draw 29% and A. Nacional 38%, so A. Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Once Caldas and 1.5 for A. Nacional (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Once Caldas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for A. Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Once Caldas vs A. Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions