Today / Colombia - Primera A / America de Cali vs D. Pereira

America de Cali vs D. Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 22:45

America de Cali

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Pereira

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-15.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.4%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-15.6%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 76.3% 1.31 -18.9%

Draw 25.5% 21.7% 4.60 +17.3%

Away win 12.6% 9.1% 11.00 +38.6%

Over 2.5 45.5% 54.6% 1.83 -16.7%

Over 3.5 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -25.0%

BTTS 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0✓ 14.8%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali1.8

D. Pereira0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.25

D. PEREIRA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

72%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -18.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +17.3%

D. Pereira (A) 12.6%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face D. Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 62% chance, the draw 26% and D. Pereira 13%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for America de Cali and 0.7 for D. Pereira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 1-0.

America de Cali vs D. Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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