America de Cali vs D. Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 19 Olimpico Pascual Guerrero· Cali Sunday, May 3, 2026 22:45

America de Cali PPG 2.25

1-0 HIT CS2

D. Pereira PPG 0.33

Away· +38.6% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face D. Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 62% chance, the draw 26% and D. Pereira 13%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for America de Cali and 0.7 for D. Pereira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.9%

Odds: 1.31 EV: -18.9%

Draw 25.5%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +17.3%

Away 12.6%

Odds: 11.00 EV: +38.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.5% Odds: 1.83 -16.7%

Over 3.5 24.2% Odds: 3.10 -25.0%

BTTS 43.7% Odds: 2.25 -1.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

America de Cali

1.79

D. Pereira

0.70

Model SuggestionHome -18.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -18.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+38.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.5%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%