Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Colombia - Primera A Apertura - 19 Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro· Ibague Sunday, May 3, 2026 20:30

Deportes Tolima PPG 2.44

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Deportivo Cali PPG 0.88

Home· +4.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Deportivo Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Cali 22%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Deportivo Cali (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Deportivo Cali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.6%

Odds: 2.28 EV: +4.0%

Draw 32.3%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +1.7%

Away 22.1%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -30.4%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.5% Odds: 2.25 -17.9%

Over 3.5 17.2% Odds: 4.33 -25.5%

BTTS 43.6% Odds: 1.95 -15.0%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportes Tolima

1.31

Deportivo Cali

0.84

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=45.6%