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Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Cali

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.8%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 43.9% 2.28 +4.0%

Draw 32.3% 31.7% 3.15 +1.7%

Away win 22.1% 31.7% 3.15 -30.4%

Over 2.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Over 3.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -25.5%

BTTS 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima1.3

Deportivo Cali0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.44

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +4.0%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +1.7%

Deportivo Cali (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Deportivo Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Cali 22%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Deportivo Cali (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Deportivo Cali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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