Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 29 Stadion Gradski vrt· Osijek Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Vukovar PPG 1.29

VS PENDING

Dinamo Zagreb PPG 2.07

Home· +73.4% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 5% chance, the draw 10% and Dinamo Zagreb 86%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Vukovar and 3.3 for Dinamo Zagreb (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.07 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +73.4%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 5.1%

Odds: 34.00 EV: +73.4%

Draw 9.5%

Odds: 5.60 EV: -46.8%

Away 85.5%

Odds: 1.13 EV: -3.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 77.7% Odds: 1.57 +22.0%

Over 3.5 58.7% Odds: 2.40 +40.9%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 2.05 +5.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-3

2nd 0-2

3rd 0-4

4th 1-3

5th 1-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Vukovar

0.77

Dinamo Zagreb

3.34

Model SuggestionAway -3.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)