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Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Vukovar

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 85.5% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-15.5%0-29.2%0-310.2%0-4+19.9%1 1-01.3%1-14.2%1-27.0%1-37.8%1-4+15.2%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.7%2-33.0%2-4+5.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.1% 2.9% 34.00 +73.4%

Draw 9.5% 17.9% 5.60 -46.8%

Away win 85.5% 88.5% 1.13 -3.4%

Over 2.5 77.7% 63.7% 1.57 +22.0%

Over 3.5 58.7% 41.7% 2.40 +40.9%

BTTS 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 86% / xG 0.8-3.3 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.2%

#2 0–2 9.2%

#3 0–4 8.5%

#4 1–3 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vukovar0.8

Dinamo Zagreb3.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VUKOVAR · PPG 1.29

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.07

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Vukovar (H) 5.1%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV +73.4%

Draw 9.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -46.8%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 85.5%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 5% chance, the draw 10% and Dinamo Zagreb 86%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Vukovar and 3.3 for Dinamo Zagreb (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.07 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +73.4%.

Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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