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Osijek vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 36 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 14:00

Osijek

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-112.7%0-27.1%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.3%2-17.1%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 48.1% 2.08 -26.8%

Draw 28.6% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

Away win 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 17.6% 33.3% 3.00 -28.3%

BTTS 49.3% 61.7% 1.62 -20.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.3%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osijek1.1

Slaven Belupo1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSIJEK · PPG 0.94

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Osijek (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -26.8%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.7%

Slaven Belupo (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osijek face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osijek a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Slaven Belupo 36%, so Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Osijek and 1.1 for Slaven Belupo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osijek are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.71 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Osijek vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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