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Croatia - HNL
Regular Season - 36
Gradski stadion Varazdin
Saturday, May 23, 2026
14:00
Varazdin
PPG 1.76
2-0
HIT CS5
Istra
PPG 1.18
Draw· -3.7%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
45.9%
Odds: 1.97
EV: -9.6%
Draw
28.0%
Odds: 3.35
EV: -3.7%
Away
26.1%
Odds: 3.50
EV: -5.2%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
47.3%
Odds: 1.80
-14.9%
Over 3.5
21.8%
Odds: 2.95
-21.4%
BTTS
51.6%
Odds: 1.65
-14.9%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
2-1
✘
5th
2-0
✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Varazdin
1.36
Istra
1.02
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-14.9%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 34 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
62%
O2.5/Under
71%
BTTS/No
50%
Score Hit
62%
ROI
-28.6%
Bet Hit
29%
(7 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)