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Varazdin vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Varazdin

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Istra

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.4%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 50.8% 1.97 -9.6%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Over 2.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Over 3.5 21.8% 33.9% 2.95 -21.4%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varazdin1.4

Istra1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.76

ISTRA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Varazdin (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -9.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

Istra (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varazdin face Istra in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varazdin a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Istra 26%, so Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Varazdin and 1.0 for Istra (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varazdin are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.18 for Istra. This match finished 2-0.

Varazdin vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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