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Croatia - HNL logo Croatia flag Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 36 Gradski stadion Varazdin Saturday, May 23, 2026 14:00
Varazdin logo Varazdin PPG 1.76
2-0 HIT CS5
Istra logo Istra PPG 1.18
Draw· -3.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.9%
Odds: 1.97 EV: -9.6%
Draw 28.0%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -3.7%
Away 26.1%
Odds: 3.50 EV: -5.2%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.3% Odds: 1.80 -14.9%
Over 3.5 21.8% Odds: 2.95 -21.4%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.65 -14.9%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Varazdin
1.36
Istra
1.02

Model Suggestion

BTTS -14.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.

League Track Record

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%
O2.5/Under 71%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 62%
ROI -28.6%
Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

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