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Dinamo Zagreb vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:45

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

// Model verdict

Home 76% chance

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-16.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-19.7%4+-23.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 80.0% 1.25 -14.9%

Draw 22.7% 18.5% 5.40 +13.6%

Away win 9.2% 10.4% 9.60 -7.0%

Over 2.5 62.9% 74.1% 1.35 -15.1%

Over 3.5 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

BTTS 51.6% 62.5% 1.60 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb2.7

Lok. Zagreb0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.59

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

76%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.59), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -14.9%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +13.6%

Lok. Zagreb (A) 9.2%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face Lok. Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Lok. Zagreb 9%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.7 for Lok. Zagreb (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.59 points per game versus 0.82 for Lok. Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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