Today / Croatia - HNL / Hajduk Split vs Vukovar

Hajduk Split vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 36 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:15

Hajduk Split

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vukovar

PPG 0.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 79% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-18.7%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.5%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 85.5% 1.17 -26.9%

Draw 22.6% 17.4% 5.75 +18.0%

Away win 14.9% 6.5% 15.50 +78.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 69.0% 1.45 -23.7%

Over 3.5 30.3% 46.5% 2.15 -34.9%

BTTS 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hajduk Split2.1

Vukovar0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 2.06

VUKOVAR · PPG 0.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

79%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

Hajduk Split (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -26.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +18.0%

Vukovar (A) 14.9%

ODDS 15.50 · IMPLIED 6.5% EV +78.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hajduk Split face Vukovar in Croatia - HNL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hajduk Split a 63% chance, the draw 23% and Vukovar 15%, so Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hajduk Split and 0.7 for Vukovar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hajduk Split are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.41 for Vukovar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +78.6%. This match finished 6-3.

Hajduk Split vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - HNL Predictions