Today / Croatia - HNL / Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split

Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:15

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hajduk Split

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.7%0-29.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-16.0%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 27.4% 3.65 +1.3%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 44.7% 53.2% 1.88 -16.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

Over 3.5 23.5% 35.7% 2.80 -20.5%

BTTS 51.6% 62.5% 1.60 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lok. Zagreb1.0

Hajduk Split1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 1.65

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.65), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Lok. Zagreb (H) 28.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Hajduk Split (A) 44.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Zagreb face Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Zagreb a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Hajduk Split 45%, so Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lok. Zagreb and 1.5 for Hajduk Split (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Zagreb are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.71 for Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - HNL Predictions