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Gorica vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Gorica

PPG 1.24 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Osijek

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-110.0%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 48.5% 2.06 -1.7%

Draw 28.1% 31.7% 3.15 -6.9%

Away win 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 16.4% 27.4% 3.65 -24.1%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0✓ 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gorica1.3

Osijek0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GORICA · PPG 1.24

OSIJEK · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.24) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Gorica (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -1.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.9%

Osijek (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gorica face Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gorica a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Osijek 24%, so Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gorica and 0.8 for Osijek (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gorica are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.94 for Osijek. This match finished 2-0.

Gorica vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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