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Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-19.1%0-210.5%0-38.0%0-4+7.9%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.5%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.7%2-13.9%2-24.5%2-33.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.4%3-31.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 15.4% 6.50 -6.2%

Draw 22.2% 22.2% 4.50 -0.1%

Away win 64.0% 71.4% 1.40 -10.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 45.5% 2.20 -11.3%

BTTS 54.0% 61.7% 1.62 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.0%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–3 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slaven Belupo0.9

Dinamo Zagreb2.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.71

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs Home GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Slaven Belupo (H) 13.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -6.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.1%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 64.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slaven Belupo face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slaven Belupo a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Dinamo Zagreb 64%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slaven Belupo and 2.3 for Dinamo Zagreb (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.24 for Dinamo Zagreb. This match finished 1-4.

Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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