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Vukovar vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 35 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Vukovar

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Varazdin

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.4%0-27.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.4%1-112.3%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.9%2-17.2%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 27.4% 3.65 +27.0%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 39.4% 52.4% 1.91 -24.8%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 27.4% 33.9% 2.95 -11.5%

BTTS 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.8%

A 39% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–2✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vukovar1.2

Varazdin1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VUKOVAR · PPG 1.24

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Vukovar (H) 34.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +27.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Varazdin (A) 39.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Varazdin 39%, so Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vukovar and 1.5 for Varazdin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.06 for Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Vukovar vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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