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Istra vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:45

Istra

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rijeka

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-112.4%0-27.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.5%2-16.9%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 24.4% 4.10 +38.2%

Draw 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -2.1%

Away win 37.9% 55.2% 1.81 -31.4%

Over 2.5 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

Over 3.5 20.5% 29.4% 3.40 -18.2%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 9.8%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra1.1

Rijeka1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA · PPG 1.29

RIJEKA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Istra (H) 33.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +38.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.1%

Rijeka (A) 37.9%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Rijeka 38%, so Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Istra and 1.3 for Rijeka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.18 for Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Istra vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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