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Rijeka vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Rijeka

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Gorica

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.1%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.6%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 59.5% 1.68 -16.7%

Draw 26.6% 27.4% 3.65 -1.8%

Away win 23.9% 22.0% 4.55 +5.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Over 3.5 18.3% 30.8% 3.25 -24.3%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0✓ 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijeka1.4

Gorica0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJEKA · PPG 1.71

GORICA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Rijeka (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -16.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.8%

Gorica (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijeka face Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijeka a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Gorica 24%, so Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rijeka and 0.8 for Gorica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijeka are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Rijeka vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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