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Odense BK vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Odense BK

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vejle BK

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.9%1-17.9%1-25.2%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.3%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.4%4+-25.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 67.6% 1.48 -22.4%

Draw 22.9% 21.7% 4.60 +3.2%

Away win 24.7% 17.9% 5.60 +23.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 50.4% 48.8% 2.05 +3.3%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Odense BK2.4

Vejle BK1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ODENSE BK · PPG 1.60

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Odense BK (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +3.2%

Vejle BK (A) 24.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Odense BK face Vejle BK in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Odense BK a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Vejle BK 25%, so Odense BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Odense BK and 1.3 for Vejle BK (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Odense BK are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.33 for Vejle BK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Odense BK vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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