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SonderjyskE vs Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

SonderjyskE

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nordsjaelland

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.8%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.8%1-111.2%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.0%3-15.1%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 30.3% 3.30 +58.7%

Draw 25.8% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

Away win 26.1% 50.0% 2.00 -28.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 64.5% 1.55 -8.4%

Over 3.5 33.9% 42.6% 2.35 -20.3%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SonderjyskE1.7

Nordsjaelland1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.80

NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

SonderjyskE (H) 48.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +58.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.7%

Nordsjaelland (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

SonderjyskE face Nordsjaelland in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SonderjyskE a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Nordsjaelland 26%, so SonderjyskE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for SonderjyskE and 1.3 for Nordsjaelland (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SonderjyskE are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.13 for Nordsjaelland. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.7%. This match finished 1-4.

SonderjyskE vs Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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