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Vejle BK vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Vejle BK

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fredericia

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.1%1-19.0%1-28.0%1-34.7%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.8%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 33.9% 2.95 +11.8%

Draw 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

Away win 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 63.7% 1.57 -3.1%

Over 3.5 47.7% 41.7% 2.40 +14.5%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vejle BK1.8

Fredericia1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.87

FREDERICIA · PPG 1.20

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.87) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Vejle BK (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +11.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.3%

Fredericia (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vejle BK face Fredericia in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vejle BK a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Fredericia 36%, so Vejle BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vejle BK and 1.8 for Fredericia (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vejle BK are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.20 for Fredericia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Vejle BK vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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