Today / Denmark - Superliga / Vejle BK vs Fredericia

Vejle BK vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Vejle BK

PPG 0.87 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fredericia

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.1%1-19.0%1-28.0%1-34.7%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.8%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 33.9% 2.95 +11.8%

Draw 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

Away win 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 63.7% 1.57 -3.1%

Over 3.5 47.7% 41.7% 2.40 +14.5%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vejle BK1.8

Fredericia1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.87

FREDERICIA · PPG 1.20

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.87) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Vejle BK (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +11.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.3%

Fredericia (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vejle BK face Fredericia in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vejle BK a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Fredericia 36%, so Vejle BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vejle BK and 1.8 for Fredericia (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vejle BK are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.20 for Fredericia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Vejle BK vs Fredericia Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - Superliga Predictions